(Yicai Global) Dec. 7 -- China's commodity prices are not likely to grow as rapidly as earlier this year next year amid weakening demand, stabilizing policies, and tightening liquidity, according to analysts.

It will be hard for commodity prices to maintain rapid growth next year, Li Dawei, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, wrote in a recent report. Prices may slightly fall and fluctuate at a high level, he added.

The demand should shrink and commodity prices edge down as the temperatures drop and construction sites suspend work, said the expert.

In 2022, prices of goods may not retain rapid growth based on econometric models that envision scenarios of effective control of the global Covid-19 pandemic, gradual economic recovery, and tightened market liquidity, Wang Shouyang, research center director at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said during a recent forum.

Commodity prices are predicted to start declining as the US Federal Reserve is expected to begin shrinking its balance sheet as the earlier global excessive liquidity prompted commodity prices to soar, per analysts.

The earlier surge has come to a halt. China's thermal coal futures prices skyrocketed to a historic high of CNY1,982 (USD311) per ton in October from a low point of CNY750 (USD118) per ton in August. But the prices have gradually declined after October as the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly asked investors to avoid speculation and hoarding the energy resource used in heating.

Consequently, the most-active thermal coal futures contract closed at CNY687 per ton yesterday, or more than 65 percent lower than the historic high. The slump has caused ripple effects. Prices of other commodity futures, including those of steel, aluminum, glass, paper pulp, and PVC, have fallen sharply.

The comprehensive pricing of steel materials slid almost 11 percent to CNY5,082 (USD798) late last month from late October, according to steel consultancy Lange Steel.

The China Commodity Price Index in November edged down to 99.2 percent, the lowest level since February, according to a gauge issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The corresponding component indexes indicated an imbalance in supply and demand as a build-up of inventories started to form, suggesting downturn pressures.

Editor: Liao Shumin, Emmi Laine, Xiao Yi