(Yicai Global) Oct. 24 -- China’s imports and exports grew more slowly for two straight months, compared with a year ago, due to sluggish overseas demand. But a former commerce ministry official suggested that foreign trade growth will likely pick up by the end of this year after the short-term impact of negative factors fades.

Trade jumped 8.3 percent from a year earlier to CNY3.81 trillion ((USD525.4 billion) last month, slightly slower than August’s 8.6 percent clip, according to statistics the General Administration of Customs released today. Exports climbed 10.7 percent to CNY2.19 trillion, while imports rose 5.2 percent to CNY1.62 trillion.

The slowdown in growth was mainly due to the disruption of the global supply chain caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and some export orders were cancelled, Wei Jianguo, former commerce vice minister, told Yicai Global. At the same time, global spending power has declined because of inflation, and some demand has shifted to low-end products, resulting in a decrease in export value, he said.

But growth did not slow significantly, and the decline only lasted for one to two months, Wei said, predicting China’s international trade will rapidly rebound to double-digit growth by the end of 2022, especially, as with the onset of winter, there will be greater demand for cold weather goods.

For the first three quarters of the year, trade rose 9.9 percent from a year ago to CNY31.11 trillion. Exports jumped 13.8 percent to CNY17.67 trillion, and imports gained 5.2 percent to CNY13.44 trillion, the customs data showed.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations remained China’s largest trading partner. Trade with ASEAN jumped 15.2 percent to CNY4.7 trillion in the first three quarters, and that with the European Union, its second-biggest trading partner, climbed 9 percent to CNY4.23 trillion. Trade with the United States rose 8 percent to CNY3.8 trillion.

China and the ASEAN countries have been implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership since it came into force at the start of this year, which has boosted trade, and bilateral trade will likely rise further, Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies, told Yicai Global.

The RCEP is a free trade agreement between 15 countries, including those from the ASEAN as well as China, that has created the world’s largest trading bloc.

China’s auto exports surged 67 percent to CNY259.8 billion (USD35.8 billion) in the first three quarters, driven by the wave of new energy vehicles and becoming the fastest-growing sector. Exports of mechanical and electrical products jumped 10 percent to CNY10.04 trillion, while smartphones gained 7.8 percent to CNY672.3 billion, per customs data.

Editors: Dou Shicong, Peter Thomas