China's Car Sales to Drop 15% to 20% in 2026, Nio's CEO Says(Yicai) June 15 -- The Chinese auto market has entered a brutal final stage this year, with retail sales expected to fall 15 percent to 20 percent from the previous year, according to the chief executive officer of electric vehicle startup Nio.
China's passenger car ownership has topped 370 million units, marking the end of the high-growth period and the start of an era of competition for existing customers, Li Bin, who is also founder and chairman of Nio, said at the China Auto Chongqing Summit on June 13. Carmakers will face challenges with product definition, core technologies, supply chain management, manufacturing, sales and service, brand building, and others, he added.
Auto sales in China plunged 20 percent to 7.1 million units in the five months ended May 31 from a year earlier due to multiple factors, including changes to the country's NEV purchase tax and high international oil prices, according to data by the China Passenger Car Association. The drop widened to 23 percent in the first week of this month.
With the increasing homogenization of new energy vehicles, simple parameter comparisons will no longer have advantages, so the ability to establish a complete, mature, and efficient development system will be key for carmakers to differentiate and build core barriers, Li noted.
Sales of NEVs fell 15 percent in the first five months to 3.7 million units, less than the drop of fuel-powered vehicles, lifting their market share to 52 percent. The share further increased to a record high of nearly 67 percent in the first week of June, the CPCA data showed.
The year has been the most challenging since Nio entered the auto industry, Li noted at a media communication meeting on June 12. Although its sales continue to grow, the coming months still hold many uncertainties, with significant market challenges, he stressed.
Nio's deliveries, including its Onvo and Firefly brands, surged 69 percent to 150,526 units in the January to May period from a year ago. The Shanghai-based carmaker has set a target of 450,000 to 490,000 sales for this year, up 40 percent to 50 percent from the previous year.
Editors: Dou Shicong, Martin Kadiev