(Yicai) Oct. 18 -- China’s gross domestic product rose 4.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, higher than the average 4.5 percent forecast by chief economists surveyed by Yicai, putting the country on track to hit its annual economic growth target.

The government set a target of “about 5 percent” for 2023 earlier in the year. 

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today showed that GDP expanded 5.2 percent to CNY91.3 trillion (USD12.5 trillion) in the first nine months from a year ago, after a 4.5 percent clip in the first quarter and 6.3 percent in the second.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said he is very confident that China will achieve its annual GDP growth goal. The economists polled by Yicai have predicted a 5.04 percent yearly gain, while BOC Research Institute expects 5.7 percent growth this quarter.

Thanks to favorable policies and a rebound in supply and demand, many major economic indicators have rebounded more than expected, indicating a clear recovery trend, said Pang Ming, chief economist at the China unit of US property services firm Jones Lang LaSalle.

The economy began at a low level last quarter, but then moved up, according to Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank. Affected by extreme weather, much of July’s macroeconomic data disappointed, but then interest rate cuts and policies to support the private economy and property market kicked in and the data improved in August.

Manufacturers accelerated production, and consumption recovered rapidly, resulting in over CNY34.2 trillion (USD4.7 billion) of consumer goods being sold at retail in the first nine months, up nearly 7 percent from a year earlier, Citic Securities’ macro team noted.

Favorable policies, stable employment, and a recovery in incomes underpinned consumption, according to Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, while the long Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday boosted the travel and catering sectors.

Vehicle production and sales hit a September record high last month, climbing 6.6 percent and 9.5 percent to 2.8 million and 2.858 million, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association expects sales to grow in the fourth quarter too.

From January to September, China’s fixed-asset investment totaled nearly CNY3.8 billion (USD520 million), up 3 percent from a year ago. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing each grew by 6 percent. However, investment in real estate development fell 9 percent.

Editor: Emmi Laine