(Yicai Global) Oct. 11 -- Confidence in China’s economy has risen for the third consecutive month, according to chief economists polled by Yicai, who also anticipate further stimulus measures to support a gradual stabilization and recovery.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index rose to 50.9 in October from 50.7 in September, the poll of leading China-based economists showed yesterday. The figure was 50.5 in August, when it increased for the first time since March. A reading above 50 indicates positive sentiment.

The economists expect China’s gross domestic product to have expanded more slowly in the third quarter than in the second, making an average prediction of 4.47 percent, and forecast an annual growth rate of 5.04 percent.

Earlier this year, China’s government set a target of “about 5 percent” GDP growth for 2023.

September’s consumer price index probably edged up 0.15 percent from a year earlier, faster than August’s 0.1 percent clip, while the producer price index likely fell 2.3 percent, compared with a 3 percent decline the previous month, the economists indicated.

Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial value added, and fixed asset investment are expected to have risen 4.7 percent, 4.5 percent, and 3.2 percent, respectively, in September from August, each posting a faster month-on-month pace.

The economists expect foreign trade to have remained under pressure last month, with imports and exports likely falling 6 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively, from a year ago. The average forecast for the trade surplus was USD71.28 billion, up from USD68.36 billion in August.

New loans likely rose to CNY2.54 trillion (USD347.7 billion), while social financing probably reached CNY3.78 trillion. The average prediction for growth in M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, was 10.6 percent.

The chances of any change in the benchmark deposit and loan prime rates in the coming month are relatively small, the economists believe.

They also lowered their forecast for the Chinese yuan, now expecting it to weaken to 7.15 versus the US dollar by the end of the year, compared with last month’s prediction of 7.06, and see the redback falling to 7.23 by the end of this month.

Regarding the real estate sector, the economists said any further easing of related policies in first-tier cities will depend on an improvement in housing unit sales and the wider economy. Some non-core cities may scrap more real estate policies, such as purchase restrictions, they suggested.

Editor: Futura Costaglione