(Yicai Global) Feb. 24 -- Power blackouts and poor business afflict those Chinese people who have stayed behind in Ukraine, but the unrest should end this year, according to two Chinese businessmen and one student who spoke to Yicai Global about how their lives have been disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict on its first anniversary.

There are around 600 Chinese who are still in Odessa, said Qu Bo, chairman of the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Odessa in Ukraine. Many of them are vendors at East Europe’s largest wholesale market in the city, which sells a lot China-made footwear, hats and clothes. Most had no choice but to stay as they bought a lot of stock before the unrest, he added.

The conflict will likely be over in autumn this year, Qu said, who has left the country where he lived for nearly 30 years after helping 2,100 Chinese people to evacuate a year ago, although he has been back several times since then.

But before it ends, Russia’s ‘spring offensive’ will likely come true given the situation on the frontline and the fact that Western countries continue to give assistance to Ukraine, Qu said.

The turmoil will climax before it ends, said Wang Xiao, a Chinese student studying in Ukraine, who returned to China in March last year. Nearly a year later, he is still waiting to hear from his university about when he can defend his doctoral thesis.

“Western countries will provide fewer weapons to Ukraine when public opinion or their politicians think doing so is no longer profitable, then the unrest will end,” Wang said.

Many Ukrainians are not willing to go to the frontline after hearing how cruel the war is, but the country has eased restrictions on age and location and continues to recruit for the army, even targeting top intellectuals, Qu said.

Male schoolmates of Wang are not allowed to leave the country since the conflict broke out, Wang said. Many have sneaked into Poland across the border. They only need several thousand Euros (equivalent to several thousand US dollars) to enter Poland from Lviv Oblast in Ukraine.

New Normal

Several of Wang’s schoolmates have returned to Ukraine over the past year and begun a new life amid the conflict. “There are frequent power cuts, which affect online learning,” he said.

“I have noticed that there are fewer people on the streets. Many people have moved to rural areas where there is no electricity, but they can keep warm by burning wood. Some are moving to the western parts of the country because the east is stricken by war,” said Qu.

Restaurants, shops and marketplaces are open in Kiev, but businesses are not thriving as before, he said. Although there are fewer power cuts and water and heating is available after some infrastructure was repaired.

Future Plans

Wang plans to go back to Ukraine once the conflict is over and then return to China as soon as he finishes his thesis as he feels it is not safe to stay, he said.

Tan Yanle, who studied in Ukraine around 2000, runs a tourism company to eastern Europe and Russia from China. In 2019, he organized 15 tour groups to Ukraine, but now, business has dried up.

He hopes to go to Ukraine after the conflict is over to meet his old schoolmates, friends and tutors. As for his tourism business, he will wait and see what happens.

Qu said he will definitely go back to Ukraine. “Ukraine cannot start post-war reconstruction without the Chinese, but when this will begin no one knows yet. But we can start to make preparations because opportunity comes to those who are prepared.”

Editor: Kim Taylor