(Yicai Global) Feb. 20 --  With the passage of time, more and more of those infected by the Covid-19 virus have recovered, reinforcing the positive trend discussed earlier and suggesting the worst of the outbreak is behind us. However, the rate of recovery differs significantly between Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of the country. Moreover, the death toll continues to rise.

The virus is concentrated in Hubei Province and, in particular, its capital Wuhan. In the rest of the country, which is home to 96 percent of the people, the situation continues to improve rapidly. In China, outside of Hubei, the number of existing cases peaked on February 10 at close to 9,000. Since then, the number of existing cases has declined steadily to below 7,400 on February 18. Note that the Chinese medical authorities define "existing cases" of the virus as "confirmed cases" less those who have been cured and those who have died.

 The decline in the number of existing cases is essentially due to patients being cured over time. Outside of Hubei, 40 percent of all patients infected have already recovered. This is up from close to 20 percent, when the number of existing cases peaked on February 10. 

The improvement is also due a sharp decline in new cases. Recently, the average daily increase in confirmed cases was less than 100. This compares to a daily average of over 700 over February 1-6. 

The 83 deaths in this part of the country are not a factor that explains the dynamic of the disease. Less than one percent of those that contracted the virus have died.

In Hubei Province the picture is much less sunny, although there are hopeful signs here too. The Hubei authorities redefined their data on February 12 to account for diagnoses in clinics as well as hospitals. This makes a definitive analysis of the numbers difficult.  

In contrast to the rest of China, the number of existing cases continues to rise in Hubei. However, the increase is much slower than we have seen previously. Between February 3-9, existing cases rose by a daily average of 2,300. More recently, the average has fallen to close to 600, despite the base number of cases having increased as a result of the redefinition.

 A slowing in confirmed cases and more cured patients have played fairly equal roles in containing the increase in existing cases. Fifteen percent of those with confirmed cases have now recovered. This is up from only 3 percent in early February.

Sadly, with the passage of time, more patients die. Currently, the virus claims about 120 lives a day. While only 3 percent of those who have contracted the virus in Hubei have died, the death toll has already exceeded 1,900. Virus-related deaths in Hubei account for 96 percent of those in the country as a whole. 

The situation in Wuhan remains quite difficult. The number of new confirmed cases continues to rise by close to 1,600 per day, which is only marginally slower than over February 3-9 (although the redefinition makes it hard to compare these two periods). Moreover, only 11 percent of those who have contracted the virus in Wuhan have recovered. 

The low recovery rate in Wuhan is likely due to the extreme strain the virus has put on the city's medical facilities and is not a characteristic of the virus itself. Wuhan originally had 72 hospitals, including some of the best in the country, as well as a host of other medical facilities. Moreover, two new hospitals – Leishenshan with 1,500 beds and Huoshenshan with 1,000 beds – were constructed in less than two weeks to accommodate infected patients. Nevertheless, sixty percent of China's confirmed cases are in Wuhan and is has been a challenge to manage the 44,000 who have contracted the virus.

Outside of Wuhan, recovery has been much more rapid. In the rest of Hubei which has seen more than 17,000 confirmed cases (about a quarter of the country's total), the recovery rate is about 25 percent. In Shanghai, which has only had 333 cases, more than half the patients have been cured.

Editor：Chen Juan