(Yicai) Nov. 8 -- Though confidence in China’s economy softened a little this month, ending three months of gains, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai, they expect growth this year to meet the government’s target of “about 5 percent,” as the economy is continuing on a moderate recovery path with policy support feeding through.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index fell to 50.8 in November from 50.9 last month, the poll of leading China-based economists showed yesterday. The figure was 50.7 in September and 50.5 in August, when it ticked up for the first time since March. A reading above 50 indicates positive sentiment.

Gross domestic product rose 4.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, putting China on course to hit the annual expansion target of “about 5 percent” set earlier in the year.

The central government will issue CNY1 trillion (USD137.5 billion) of sovereign debt this quarter, which the chief economists believe will help support the post-pandemic recovery and strengthen the foundations for economic growth, preparing the way for positive economic development next year.

October’s consumer price index likely fell 0.06 percent from a year earlier, after it was flat in September, while the producer price index probably dropped 2.6 percent, compared with a 2.5 percent decline the previous month, according to the results of the survey.

Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial value added, and fixed asset investment are expected to have risen 6.62 percent, 4.46 percent, and 3.14 percent, respectively, according to the average forecast. Consumer goods sales grew 5.5 percent in September, industrial value added rose 4.5 percent, while fixed asset investment climbed 3.1 percent in January to September, official data showed.

The economists expect financial indicators to have weakened in October from the previous month. New loans likely fell to CNY720.5 billion (USD99.1 billion), while new social financing probably totaled CNY1.82 trillion. The average prediction for growth in M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, was 10.3 percent.

Changes in the benchmark deposit and loan prime rates in the coming month are unlikely, the economists indicated.

They also increased their forecast for the Chinese yuan, now expecting it to strengthen to 7.13 versus the US dollar by the end of the year, compared with last month’s prediction of 7.15. But the redback will weaken to 7.2 by the end of this month from 7.1781 on Oct. 30, they predicted.

Editor: Martin Kadiev