(Yicai Global) Aug. 8 -- The Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index, which monitors how top thinkers believe the Chinese economy performed in the month prior and what they think will happen in the coming month, fell to 50.28 for July with three experts giving a sub-50, or pessimistic, score.

Key takeaways and predictions from the survey were  

The yuan is not likely to fall sharply in August.

The yuan's slide against the dollar may provide a partial offset against the United States trade tariffs, but an excessive softening could lead to excessive capital outflow.

The consumer price index grew 1.94 percent, faster than in June.

The producer price index grew just under 4.5 percent, slower than the previous month.

Total retail sales of social consumer goods grew over 9 percent on the year, just faster than the month prior.

The annual growth rate of Industrial added-value was 6.3 percent, a sharper gain than in June.

Fixed asset investment rose 6 percent, just quicker than in June.

Real estate development and investment grew nearly 9.5 percent, slower than in June and marking a fourth straight month of decline.

Export growth declined to just under 10.5 percent from 11.3 percent in the previous month.

Import growth rose to nearly 17.2 percent from 14.1 percent in June.

The trade surplus decreased to USD38.7 billion from USD41.6 billion a month earlier.

The growth rate of broad money supply (M2) was 8.23 percent, faster than in June.

18 of the economists surveyed agreed that benchmark deposit and lending rates will remain unchanged until the end of August.

16 of them believe that the required reserve ratio will remain unchanged through August.

One suggested the central bank may reduce the RRR once this month.

The yuan's central parity rate versus the dollar will soften to 6.82 by the end of August.

The yuan-dollar central parity rate will hold to 6.82 at the end of the year, weaker than forecasts made last month [6.68].

Editor: James Boynton