(Yicai) Jan. 21 -- The ASEAN+3 region, which includes the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations, as well as China, Japan, and South Korea, is expected to post stronger economic growth in 2026 than previously forecast, buoyed by resilience to global uncertainties, including US tariff policies, according to the latest outlook from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

The regional economy is projected to expand 4 percent in 2026 after growing 4.3 percent last year, the Singapore-headquartered macroeconomic surveillance organization said in its January update released today. The new forecasts represent upward revisions of 0.2 percentage point for both years compared with the previous outlook issued in October.

China’s economic growth outlook was also revised up by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent in 2026, following 5 percent growth last year, according to the report. The performance was driven by supportive macroeconomic policies, resilient export growth, and robust investment in high-tech manufacturing.

“The ASEAN+3 region has demonstrated notable resilience, navigating global uncertainties more effectively than anticipated,” said He Dong, chief economist at AMRO. “Strong technology demand and robust foreign direct investment inflows into emerging sectors, including advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services, have helped cushion growth despite ongoing tariff headwinds.”

In particular, regional semiconductor exports rose 21.7 percent in the second half of last year, reflecting sustained demand for artificial intelligence-related applications and cloud infrastructure, the report showed. Looking ahead, the purchasing managers’ index for global electronics new orders improved further in December and returned to expansion, signaling continued support for export growth going into 2026.

Equity markets across the region have also posted solid gains since last October, supported by strong momentum in the artificial intelligence sector, even as investors closely monitored developments in US tariff policy, AMRO noted.

Looking forward, risks have become more balanced overall, but downside risks remain, and uncertainty continues to be elevated, AMRO said. Key concerns include unpredictable US trade policy and the potential extension and broadening of protectionist measures.

A sharp slowdown in technology demand is also possible, whether due to market corrections or delays in downstream artificial intelligence deployment, which could weigh on regional exports given the sector’s extensive cross-border linkages, the report added.

“In the near term, maintaining policy readiness to respond to emerging shocks is critical. Over the longer term, diversifying growth drivers and deepening regional economic integration will be essential to strengthen the region’s resilience,” He said.

Editors: Dou Shicong, Emmi Laine