(Yicai Global) July 10 -- China’s car sales may dive as much as 20 percent this year regardless of last month’s year-on-year records for sales and production, according to a new forecast from a major auto industry association.

Sales could drop 20 percent compared with last year if the novel coronavirus continues to spread worldwide or they may fall 10 percent if it comes under control overseas as well as in China, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said.

The situation overseas remains uncertain and demand has not yet recovered, so export-dependent companies are still not out of trouble, the CAAM said, adding that demand is likely to soften after measures to boost consumption in various countries come to an end.

China’s automakers should focus on changes in their domestic market with timely adjustments to the pace of production and sales, it added.

In June, sales jumped 11.6 percent from a year earlier and 22.5 percent from the previous month to 2.3 million vehicles, the CAAM said. Some 2.325 million units were manufactured, a gain of 4.8 percent from a year ago and 6.3 percent from May.

Some 102,000 new energy vehicles were made and 104,000 sold last month, the most so far this year, despite the figures declining 25 percent and 33.1 percent from a year earlier.

First-half sales slumped 16.9 percent to 10.26 million from a year ago, while output slid 16.8 percent to 10.11 million due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Editor: Peter Thomas