China's Growth Slowed in Third Quarter, But Key Gauges Signal Stabilizing Economy, NBS Says
Zhu Yanran
DATE:  Oct 19 2019
/ SOURCE:  yicai
China's Growth Slowed in Third Quarter, But Key Gauges Signal Stabilizing Economy, NBS Says China's Growth Slowed in Third Quarter, But Key Gauges Signal Stabilizing Economy, NBS Says

(Yicai Global) Oct. 18 -- China's economic growth slowed in the third quarter, but investments in industry, consumption and infrastructure showed a general recovery last month hinting at a stable fourth quarter, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said.

The expansion in gross domestic product was 6 percent in the three months ended September from a year earlier, decelerating from 6.2 percent in the second quarter and 6.4 percent in the first, NBS data showed today. A Yicai Global survey of 21 chief economists at major Chinese financial institutions forecast 6.07 percent. Nine-month GDP grew at a 6.2 percent clip.

Despite the slowdown, China still leads major economies around the world, Mao Shengyong said at a press briefing in Beijing.

In September, the value added by industries above a certain size rose 5.8 percent, up 1.4 percentage point from the previous month. Sales of consumer goods increased 7.8 percent year on year to CNY3.45 trillion (USD487 billion), up 0.3 point from August. In the January to September period, infrastructure investments saw a year on year gain of 4.5 percent, 0.3 point more than in the first eight months.

Positive factors in China can compensate for external uncertainties, Mao said. The growing capacity of the service sector, the expanding potential of consumption, the continued transformation and upgrading of industries and the sustained effects of government policies as well as a lower base in the fourth quarter last year will ensure a stable economic trend in the fourth quarter, Mao said.

The real economy faces many difficulties and the country needs to step up efforts to adopt the policies introduced by the central government, he added.

Economic Shift

The slowdown in China's overall economic growth is an inevitable step in China's painful transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, Liu Zhe, Wanbo New Economy Institute's deputy director, told Yicai Global. New industries and a new economy have always started from what seems like a particularly difficult and depressing point, he added.

The fifth-generation mobile communications, new energy, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, other new technology breakthroughs and the boom of new industries have huge growth prospects, Liu said. The resilience of the Chinese economy also lies in its huge consumer market, its fast-growing online retail sector and the available space for investment in modern infrastructure.

Growth in consumption slowed slightly in September, he said, showing signs of stabilization. Rural consumption is growing faster than urban consumption, indicating that upgraded rural consumption is coming into effect.

Infrastructure investments recovered for two straight months thanks to support from enhanced countercyclical investment efforts, increased local bond issuance and accelerated project applications and review, he said.

This outlook should continue to improve, he added, as in the first two weeks of October there was faster approval of applications for infrastructure projects and local governments' willingness to invest rebounded substantially.

The manufacturing and private investment sectors also showed slowing growth. In the first three quarters, China's private fixed-asset investments raised CNY26.48 trillion, a rise of 4.7 percent year on year and down 0.2 point from the first eight months, according to the NBS. Investments in manufacturing were down 0.1 percentage point to 2.5 percent.

Growth in manufacturing and private investments will still fall before business profitability can be completely recovered and investment expectations can be fully stabilized, Liu said. Therefore, the nation needs to continue to cut taxes and fees, intensify efforts to reform the business environment to drive the transformation from improved liquidity and profits to improved investments.

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Keywords:   GDP,Infrastructure Investment,Industrial Value-Added