China's GDP Growth Slipped to 6.5% in Third Quarter
Zhu Yanran
DATE:  Oct 20 2018
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
China's GDP Growth Slipped to 6.5% in Third Quarter China's GDP Growth Slipped to 6.5% in Third Quarter

(Yicai Global) Oct. 19 -- China's gross domestic product grew 6.5 percent in the first quarter, with economic indicators for industry, consumption and investment sliding from three months earlier, according to official data.

The country still maintained 6.7 percent growth through the first three quarters, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong said at a press briefing today, adding that expansion is within a reasonable range given the increasing uncertainties in the global economy and trade frictions between China and the United States.

The International Monetary Fund re-affirmed its projections for China's annual growth this year -- 6.6 percent -- in its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook report, which was published this month. It made the initial forecast in April.

"We have the conditions, capability and confidence to achieve an annual economic growth of about 6.5 percent," Mao said. "Economic operation will face external uncertainties next year, but we firmly believe we'll see growth."

Consumers contributed to 78 percent of the expansion over the first nine months, up 14 percentage points from the same period last year, bureau data shows. Added value in the services sector made up 60.8 percent of GDP, up 1.8 points from a year earlier.

The figures meet expectations, Liu Zhe, deputy director at the Wanbo Institute of New Economic Research, told Yicai Global. Pressure will center around fixed asset investments and exports in future, he added, saying policies covering export tax rebates and inter-regional trade cooperation, and domestic demand, have all played a role in stabilizing foreign trade demand.

Official data shows that exports totaled nearly CNY1.2 trillion (USD161 billion) in the third quarter, up 6.5 percent from a year earlier. Imports gained 14.1 percent to CNY1.05 trillion, reducing the surplus by 28.3 percent.

Investment growth slid in the three-month period. Fixed asset investment gained 5.4 percent from the year-ago period, 0.6 point less than in the first half. Non-government investment increased by 8.7 percent, 0.3 point higher than the first half, while real estate investment gained 9.9 percent on the year.

Infrastructure construction will rebound to hedge against the downside risks of property investment, Liu said, adding that in manufacturing, the rising prices of raw materials have squeezed profits in the middle and downstream sectors. Current profits are an important factor when seeking capital to expand, so a large decline in earnings will inevitably have a negative impact going forward, he continued.

Regulation in real estate is starting to take effect, said Bo Zhang, chief analyst at 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, so the speed of growth is falling faster. Investment and development should continue to grow in the fourth quarter, but housing companies will become more cautious, he believes. Bo also thinks that the declines will be more noticeable in third- and fourth-tier cities starting this quarter.

Infrastructure is one of the major shortcomings in the investment sector, especially in rural areas, added Jun Wang, a member of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges' academic committee.

Follow Yicai Global on
Keywords:   GDP,Economy