(Yicai Global) May 11 -- China’s population may start to contract earlier than previously thought, according to one expert, after the results of last year’s census showed that growth slowed further over the past decade.

The average annual growth rate was 0.53 percent over the last 10 years, Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, announced at a press conference today. That was down from a 0.57 percent clip between 2000 and 2010. China’s population now stands at 1.41 billion.

Based on the data, a drop in the national headcount may come sooner than expected, Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development of Nankai University’s School of Finance, told Yicai Global.

Even so, the size of the population would not fundamentally change. China remains the world’s most populous nation, said Yuan, who is also vice president of the China Population Association.

Yuan said the prediction is based on China’s low fertility rate and falloff in newborns as the number of women of childbearing age -- 15 to 49 years old -- and those in the main childbearing years -- 20 to 34 -- will decline sharply.

It is expected that the inertia seen in China’s population growth will end in the next decade. There is no doubt that the population will enter a downward track between 2025 and 2030, Yuan said.

The sustainability of the social security system will come increasingly to the fore amid the twin traps of a low fertility rate and a declining population, he added. Measures to support social security are needed, Yuan said, and in this regard China can learn from developed nations and set up three insurance pillars for pensions, healthcare, and long-term care.

Editor: Peter Thomas