China's Property Sales to Slow Till March After Top Firms' 39% Slump in November, Experts Say(Yicai Global) Dec. 1 -- China's property sales are expected to keep on declining till next March after a nearly 40-percent plunge last month due to insufficient policy easing, according to insiders.
The sales slump could slow gradually in the short-term but the current property policy is not relaxed enough to support growth, an industry expert said to Yicai Global.
Thus, prices are predicted to drop. Real estate prices may continue declining in the fourth quarter of this year while sales could bounce back only in March, Citic Securities predicted recently.
Policymakers are thinking 'looser' not 'stricter' for a change. The regulation is not expected to be tightened further in the short run, according to a research center of the China Real Estate Research Association.
November was dark for sellers. Sales of the 100 largest mainland property developers dropped by 39 percent last month to CNY845 billion (USD132.7 billion) from a year ago, according to data property research center CRIC published yesterday. The sum was almost 6 percent lower than in October.
China has been seeking a delicate housing balance this year to rein in growth based on excessive borrowing amid China Evergande Group's liquidity crisis. The tighter lending rules for indebted real estate firms have caused slower construction, as well as lower property prices and sales.
More than 80 percent of the top 100 firms reported decreasing sales in November while half of the companies recorded slumps exceeding 30 percent, according to CRIC.
Even market leaders were suffering. Among China's top 10 biggest real estate firms, Greenland Holdings had a 56-percent sales drop in November. Sunac China Holdings recorded a 47-percent decrease. China Resources Land's number was 30 percent while sales of China Overseas Land and Investment Group contracted by 18 percent.
The sluggish month should show in the firms' full-year performance. In the first 11 months of this year, the top 100 developers logged a 1.8-percent increase in sales from a year earlier. In the first 10 months, the pace of rising had still been 7.5 percent.
Some cities have responded to the slowdown by seeking to stimulate demand.
Northeastern China's Changchun and Harbin, as well as Guangdong province's Dongguan, have recently introduced fiscal and tax policies to support house purchasing, with more third and fourth-tier cities expected to follow suit amid real estate firms' restocking pressures. But bigger first-tier and second-tier cities may remain prudent in that regard.
Some of the policies target inflated pricing. A real estate association in Hunan province's Zhangjiajie proposed recently that residential housing should be sold with a discount of up to 20 percent of the price suggested by the developer.
Jiangsu province's Nantong introduced a new measure on Nov. 29 to offer eligible talents an up to CNY1.5 million (USD235,597) allowance to purchase housing. Hubei province's Yichang began issuing coupons to be used as part of down payments.
Editor: Emmi Laine, Xiao Yi