China Should Set No GDP Growth Target This Year, PBOC Adviser Says
Liao Shumin
DATE:  Mar 31 2020
/ SOURCE:  yicai
China Should Set No GDP Growth Target This Year, PBOC Adviser Says China Should Set No GDP Growth Target This Year, PBOC Adviser Says

(Yicai Global) March 31 -- China should not set a growth target for gross domestic product this year because of the uncertainty caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak, according to a prominent adviser to the central bank.

China's economy expanded at a 6.1 percent clip last year. This year's target was due to have been announced by Premier Li Keqiang at the People's National Congress earlier this month. But that was postponed due to the Covid-19 contagion.

Even 4 percent or 5 percent growth would now be hard to achieve, Ma Jun, a member of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee, said during a recent online video forum hosted by China Economic Net.

"Many economists predict that China's economic growth may drop to 2 percent or even 1 percent," Ma said. That is "possible because the impact on the economy relies mainly on the pandemic's spread in Europe and the United States."

It would be China's slowest GDP growth rate since the advent of the country's reform and opening policy in 1978, public records show.

If a specific GDP goal were set, the amount of financial firepower needed to spur the economy could not be predicted, Ma said. "Such an aim may wind up hijacking macro policies, and eventually lead to extreme actions, including excessive loans in the monetary and financial fields," he added.

If an unrealistic GDP growth rate target were determined, the response of local governments is often to resort to massive infrastructure construction and investment, Ma said. These investments are generally capital-intensive, and do not resolve employment and livelihood issues in the short term.

Editor: Ben Armour

Follow Yicai Global on
Keywords:   PBOC,GDP