China to Spur Expansion of Effective Investment Through 2030(Yicai) Dec. 19 -- China will make great efforts to expand effective investment over the next five years by focusing on broadening investment growth space, enhancing the guiding and driving role of government investment, and stimulating the vitality of private investment.
Efforts should be made to deepen the reform of the investment system and mechanism, maintain reasonable investment growth, continuously improve investment efficiency, promote a positive interaction between consumption and investment as well as supply and demand, and provide strong support for accelerating the formation of a new development pattern during the China's 15th Five-Year Plan, according to a notice the National Development and Reform Commission's fixed-asset investment department relased on it website yesterday.
China should improve the long-term mechanism for private companies' participation in major construction projects and actively support their involvement in key sectors, including railroads, nuclear power, and hydropower, which offer certain returns.
The unexpected decline in fixed-asset investment has become the main drag on stable economic performance and domestic demand growth, Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Chasing Financial, told Yicai. The growth rate is expected to rebound to between 2 percent and 3 percent next year, driven by policy measures, Wu added.
China's fixed-asset investment dropped 2.6 percent in the January to November period from a year earlier, after falling 1.7 percent in the first 10 months from a year ago, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Nov. 15.
China will likely issue more ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to enhance support for major national initiatives and security capability development projects in key areas next year, the first of the 15th Five-Year Plan, noted Zhang Di, chief macro analyst of China Galaxy Securities.
An investment guidance effect should be formed via top-level planning in major infrastructure areas, including national security, supply chain resilience, new infrastructure, energy, water conservancy, and transportation, Zhang noted, adding that local governments should carry out multi-level and diversified layouts tailored to local conditions.
The growth of infrastructure investment may rebound to between 5 percent and 6 percent next year from 3.5 percent this year, that of manufacturing investment to around 5 percent from 3.8 percent under the support of "anti-involution" and equipment renewal relending, said Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Union.
Artificial intelligence, high-end machine tools, industrial mother machines, and new energy equipment will be the four high-growth sectors, Bai noted, while estimating that the decline in real estate investment will slow to around 5 percent from 10 percent.
Editor: Martin Kadiev