(Yicai) July 16 -- Despite the continued recovery of the civil aviation industry, China’s three biggest state-owned airlines expect losses in the first half of the year, while their private competitors forecast to have expanded profits.

Air China’s net loss likely narrowed 21 percent to 39 percent to between CNY1.7 billion and CNY2.2 billion (USD236.8 million and USD306.4 million) in the six months ended June 30 from a year earlier, the Beijing-based carrier announced on July 14.

China Eastern Airlines expects losses of CNY1.2 billion to CNY1.6 billion, shrinking up to 57 percent in the period. Meanwhile, China Southern Airlines projected its net loss to have widened 43 percent to 9 percent to between CNY1.3 billion and CNY1.8 billion.

The big three mentioned intense market competition, supply imbalances, a negative shift in customer demographics, impacts from the high-speed rail network, increasing uncertainties in the international environment, and stricter cost control measures as the main reasons for the losses.

Regarding private airlines, China Express Airlines said it expects a net profit of CNY220 million to CNY290 million (USD30.6 million and USD40.4 million) in the first six months of the year, up 741 percent to 1,009 percent from the same period last year. Hainan Airlines Holding will likely turn a loss into a net profit of CNY45 million to CNY65 million (USD6.3 million to USD9.1 million).

The two listed airlines that earned the most last year and the first quarter of this year are Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines. They have not yet disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, but they reported profits of CNY677 million and CNY345 million, respectively, in the first quarter.

The big three have a higher proportion of international routes and operate more wide-body aircraft than private airlines, so they are more exposed to the slow recovery of international flights, according to analysts

In comparison, Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines mainly focus on regional routes, so they are relatively less affected. Moreover, Spring Airlines does not operate any wide-body aircraft, which gives it greater flexibility to adjust capacity to more favorable routes and enables quicker adjustments.

In the first half of the year, the Chinese civil aviation industry transported 370 million passengers, up 5.9 percent from a year earlier. However, the average ticket price for economy class fell 6.9 percent from the same period last year and 7.8 percent from the same period in 2019. Except for January, ticket prices were lower than in 2024 and 2019 in each month.

Editor: Futura Costaglione