China’s Economy Can Still Hit 5% Growth Target in 2023, Chief Economists Predict
He Xiao
DATE:  Jul 10 2023
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
China’s Economy Can Still Hit 5% Growth Target in 2023, Chief Economists Predict China’s Economy Can Still Hit 5% Growth Target in 2023, Chief Economists Predict

(Yicai Global) July 10 -- Despite the ongoing economic challenges, China’s gross domestic product will likely expand by the government's target of about 5 percent this year, a survey of chief economists showed.

The average GDP growth forecast for this year was 5.4 percent, with a median of 5.45 percent, according to the poll of 17 leading economists in China conducted by Yicai Global. Fourteen expected GDP to have expanded by an average of 6.97 percent in the second quarter, with a median of 7 percent.

China's economy still faces significant challenges, but the annual GDP goal of around 5 percent is attainable, said Shao Yu, chief economist at Orient Securities. The government will likely implement more measures to boost the economy, but will not resort to aggressive stimulus measures, he said.

Recovery and transformation will be the economic themes of the second half, according to Ding Anhua, chief economist at China Merchants Bank. Annual GDP growth is expected to exceed the government’s target, likely reaching 5.3 percent, he noted.

Li Wenlong at the Pan-Asia Research Institute of Digital Economy said the economy faces two major challenges: unemployment, especially among young people; and record low private investment growth, excluding the period during Covid-19. This shows that the vitality and confidence of the private economy needs an urgent boost, Li said.

Given the changes in the external environment, the pressure of economic transformation is higher, and more focus will be put on food, energy, the industrial chain, and supply chain security, said Wang Han, chief economist at Industrial Securities. He also noted that recovery and transformation are the two themes for China's economy this year.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index fell for the fourth straight month in July to 50.21, according to the survey’s findings. A reading above 50 indicates confidence.

Editors: Tang Shihua, Martin Kadiev

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Keywords:   Economic Data,GDP,Economic Analysis,Chief Economists Survey