(Yicai) Jan. 22 -- China's gross domestic product may expand by 4.8 percent this year, a slower pace than last year's 5 percent, according to chief economists polled by Yicai.

China's economic growth drivers will continue to shift, and the development quality will further improve, according to the results of Yicai's annual economic outlook, a survey carried out on 15 China-based chief economists.

The consumer price index will likely rise 0.5 percent this year from the year before, a pick-up from the flat reading in 2025, the economists predicted. Meanwhile, the producer price index is expected to decline 0.9 percent in the period, slower than the 2.6 percent drop last year.

The economists forecast the value-added industrial output to jump 5.1 percent this year from 2025, down from a 5.9 percent increase last year, and total retail sales of consumer goods to climb nearly 4.1 percent, accelerating from 3.7 percent.

Investment indicators will reverse last year's decline and pick up in 2026, even though the real estate market will likely remain in a downward phase of consolidation in the short term, the economists believe. Fixed asset investment will grow 2.2 percent this year, versus a drop of 3.8 percent last year, while the real estate investment decline will decelerate to 8 percent from 17.2 percent, they predicted.

China's trade surplus in US dollar terms will rise 4.8 percent to USD1.25 trillion this year from USD1.19 trillion last year, with imports and exports up 2.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, in the period, according to the economists.

In 2026, consumption-boosting policies will continue to deliver coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to drive steady consumption growth, with the service sector remaining a key driver, said Cai Wei, chief economist at Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler.

On the supply side, China should focus on expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services and optimizing the business environment in the consumption sector, Cai noted, adding that market vitality and innovation potential can be unleashed through measures, such as relaxing market access and promoting the integration of business formats.

On the demand side, the consumer goods trade-in policy will be extended with adjusted scope, which will be more precisely tilted towards the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure, Cai pointed out. In addition, policies to improve people's well-being will be further strengthened.

To boost domestic demand this year, China should promote measures, including stabilizing income expectations, increasing residents' disposable income, expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, especially in the cultural and tourism sectors, linking consumption and investment, driving employment, and expanding consumption scenarios through urban renewal projects and other initiatives, said Wang Han, chief economist at Industrial Securities.

Against the backdrop of sustained policy support for the healthy and stable development of the capital market, the wealth effect of the capital market is expected to gradually increase, helping lift the growth of residents' property income and drive a marginal improvement in residents' consumption propensity, Cai predicted.

China should implement relevant industrial policies focused on three key directions to promote innovation-driven development, said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute. The three directions are strengthening the capacity for basic research and tackling key core technologies, fostering a positive 'science and technology - industry - finance' cycle, and promoting the large-scale application of innovation achievements in key scenarios.

Specifically for the robotics industry, the economists suggested that China introduce supportive policies to increase financial support, provide research and development incentives, help cultivate the market, formulate unified industry standards, and nurture professional talents.

Editor: Futura Costaglione