(Yicai) June 9 -- China’s trade topped forecasts once more last month, with surging global investment in artificial intelligence helping to keep external demand firm and analysts expecting exports to stay resilient.

Exports rose over 19 percent to USD376.8 billion in May, while imports jumped more than 27 percent to USD271.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD105.4 billion, according to figures released today by the General Administration of Customs. An Yicai poll of chief economists had predicted a nearly 13 percent increase in exports and a 23 percent gain in imports for a USD91.37 billion surplus.

In Chinese yuan terms, exports climbed 14 percent, and imports rose 26 percent.

“External demand is generally strong, driven by the AI investment boom and other factors,” Feng Lin, executive director of the research and development department at Golden Credit Rating International, told Yicai.

In the year to May, exports climbed almost 16 percent to USD1.71 trillion, and imports gained nearly 25 percent to USD1.26 trillion. In yuan terms, the respective increases were 12 percent and 21 percent.

AI investment is driving up the prices of chips, computer parts, and electronic components, boosting their contribution to China's exports, Feng said. She also pointed to continued gains from China’s industrial upgrading, which is supporting exports of new energy vehicles and high-tech products.

Another factor was a bump in May exports to the United States. Several heads of state, including US President Donald Trump, have visited China recently. China-US economic and trade relations have steadied, and US tariff rates have generally edged lower.

China’s exports to the US rose to USD39.03 billion in May, up 35 percent from a year ago, up by more than 24 percentage points compared with April, Feng pointed out. That increase contributed an estimated 3.2 points to the overall growth in China’s outbound shipments last month, compared with 1.2 point in April.

The year-earlier base of comparison also helped, because exports to the US in May last year were the weakest month of the second quarter and the second lowest of the year, according to Yang Chang, chief expert at the Institute of Public Policy and Governance at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

The Shanghai and Ningbo containerized freight indexes were still rising as of June 5, and were clearly above year-earlier levels, indicating that China's exports remain resilient, Yang said, adding that they are expected to stay strong.

Feng said the strong export momentum is likely to continue in the short term, coming in around 17 percent this month, but headwinds are gathering. Due to conflicts in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged, leading to heightened inflation levels and weakening growth momentum in the global economy.

That could weigh on external demand later, while the outlook for the AI investment boom itself is still uncertain, leaving export growth in the second half vulnerable to a sharp slowdown, she said.

Editor: Tom Litting