(Yicai Global) Nov. 27 -- Experts engaged in different areas of China's automotive sector, the world's largest, have expressed contrasting forecasts on how the market will perform in 2020, ranging from a more than 10 percent slide to a minor increase.

A best-case scenario is sales reaching 22.5 million vehicles, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told Yicai Global while forecasting a decline of at least 10 percent.

China's vehicle sales dived 8 percent to 28 million vehicles last year as the market contracted for the first time in nearly two decades, and sales slid more than 12 percent annually to 12.3 million in the first half of 2019. Retail sales tallied 1.85 million units last month, down 5.6 percent and marking 16 straight months of decline, though many carmakers are refusing to lower their prices.

An executive at SAIC General Motors said a price war would be "useless" given current market conditions, which Hyundai Motor Group China's Vice President Li Feng blamed on used cars blowing out low-end carmakers and a resultant loss of jobs.

A Brighter Forecast

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China National Federation of Vehicle Industry Associations, is far less pessimistic. He believes auto sales could increase 1 percent throughout the year, buoyed by reductions in national taxes and fees.

Wang Qing, deputy director of the State Council's Institute of Market Economy, also believes a rebound may be possible, but suggested a more likely event would be further contraction just at a slower rate than this year.

The predictions come amid the Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition, which opened on Nov. 22 and runs until Dec. 1. Some 1,050 are on show at this year's event, including 182 new-energy vehicles from manufacturers the world over.

There may be obstacles in the form of reduced subsidies and the costs of getting pure-electric vehicles to market, but the outlook for the NEV sector is still fairly bright, said Zhu Jun, who holds several senior positions at Shanghai's SAIC Motor and its subsidiaries.

Editor: James Boynton