(Yicai) Dec. 3 -- Overseas spending by Chinese tourists will be several times higher by 2040, driven by rising traveler numbers, shifting consumption patterns, and broader structural support, according to the head of China leisure and transport research at UBS Securities.

“In the next 10 to 15 years, the share of Chinese consumer spending and passenger flows in Asia will remain the highest globally," Chen Xin told the media, including Yicai, yesterday.

“But as outbound tourist numbers from China rise, the proportion traveling to Europe, the Americas, and Oceania will gradually increase by 2040, while their share in Asia will decline,” she added.

The number of Chinese outbound travelers could exceed 300 million by 2040, making the country the world’s top tourist source, according to a recent report by UBS. Average spending per Chinese traveler will likely reach USD1,709, for a total of USD628 billion, potentially reshaping global tourism.

Regarding the pace of recovery in spending per head, Chen noted decline as low-income groups have begun traveling overseas more. “Per capita spending will not return to the 2019 level until after 2030," she added.

The consumption patterns of Chinese tourists are also changing, Chen pointed out. The share of overseas shopping by Chinese tourists will decrease by about 15 percentage points by 2040, while they may gradually increase outlays on hotels, air tickets, and local cuisine, UBS predicts.

In addition, the proportion traveling in Asia will drop to 82 percent by 2040 from 92 percent in 2019, while that in Europe will increase to 11 percent from 4 percent and in the United States to 4 percent from 2 percent. Spending in Europe as a share will rise to 28 percent from 13 percent and in the US to 11 percent from 7 percent.

The expansion of visa-free policies, better transport networks, and the growth of the so-called silver economy are key factors driving China’s outbound tourism, Chen said. On investment opportunities, duty-free shopping, airlines, and hotels are among the most promising sectors, she added.

Editor: Martin Kadiev