(Yicai) Dec. 3 -- Chinese tourists traveling abroad will spend several times more by 2040 than they do now, boosted by growing passenger traffic and a shift in consumption patterns, with China's outbound travel having essentially returned to the pre-pandemic level of 2019, according to the head of China leisure and transport research at UBS Securities.

"In the next 10 to 15 years, the share of Chinese consumer spending or passenger flow in Asia will still be the highest in the world," Chen Xin told the media, including Yicai, yesterday. "However, as the number of outbound tourists from China gradually increases, the proportion of Chinese travelers in Europe, the Americas, and Oceania will gradually rise by 2040, while their share in Asia will decline."

The number of outbound tourists from China could exceed 300 million by 2040, making it the largest source country for travelers worldwide, according to a recent report by UBS. The average spending per such traveler will likely be USD1,709, or a total of USD628 billion, which could reshape the global tourism value chain.

Regarding the pace of recovery in per capita spending, Chen noted that there is a downward trend. With low-income groups starting to travel overseas more, "it is estimated that per capita spending will not return to the 2019 level until after 2030," he added.

The consumption patterns of Chinese tourists are also changing, Chen pointed out.

The share of overseas shopping by Chinese tourists will decrease by about 15 percentage points by 2040, while they may gradually increase spending on hotels, flight tickets, and local cuisine, UBS predicted.

In addition, the proportion of Chinese tourists traveling in Asia will drop to 82 percent by 2040 from 92 percent in 2019, while that in Europe will increase to 11 percent from 4 percent and in the United States to 4 percent from 2 percent. Regarding spending, the proportion in Europe will rise to 28 percent from 13 percent and in the US to 11 percent from 7 percent.

The expansion of visa-free policies, the improvement of transportation networks, and the rise of the silver economy are key factors driving the growth of outbound tourism in China, Chen said. Regarding investment opportunities, duty-free shopping, airlines, and hotels are among the most promising sectors, he added.

Editor: Martin Kadiev