Will US Economic Growth Stagnate Toward Japanese-Style Recession?
Yicai Global
DATE:  Feb 18 2020
/ SOURCE:  yicai
Will US Economic Growth Stagnate Toward Japanese-Style Recession? Will US Economic Growth Stagnate Toward Japanese-Style Recession?

No.

In the second quarter of last year, the US gross domestic product widened 2 percent from the preceding quarter. It expanded 2.1 percent in the following quarter. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in November, the lowest level in 50 years. The same month, personal consumption expenditures maintained a mild gain of 1.6 percent from a year earlier. These facts all indicate that the US economy has not yet fallen into a Japanese-style recession.

Even if the US manufacturing data was not satisfactory and the US Treasury yield curve inverted several times last year, sparking recession concerns, employment and consumption data have been healthy. Thereby, companies will continue investing if the trade conditions remain sound. 

In October, the IMF raised its US GDP growth forecast to 2.1 percent, which is a substantial number. Thus, this year, rising infrastructure investment may stimulate the US economy. President Donald Trump made several key promises during the 2016 election campaign, including tax cuts, efforts to create a balance in trade, a healthcare reform, the Mexico-US border wall, and boosted infrastructure investment. All of the above, except for the last option, have been initiated.

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Keywords:   Prediction 2020