(Yicai Global) April 10 -- Confidence in China’s economy remained positive for the third consecutive month in April, despite a softening in sentiment, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai Global.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index fell to 51.65 this month from 52.3 in March, the poll of 17 leading economists in China showed. A reading above 50 indicates positive sentiment. The figure in February was 51.3.

China’s economy has been recovering since the beginning of the year and is expected to continue to expand over this month, according to the economists.

The survey’s findings also showed that China’s gross domestic product likely grew 4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, up from 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. For the full year, GDP is expected to expand 5.5 percent, as all the economists indicated that the government’s 5 percent target is achievable.

Inflation probably slowed in March, with the consumer price index expected to have edged up 0.9 percent from the same period last year, lower than February’s annual increase of 1 percent. The producer price index likely fell 2.4 percent, versus a 1.4 percent decline in February.

The economists predicted an annual increase in fixed-asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods of 5.5 percent and 6.4 percent respectively in March, higher than the official figures for the previous month.

China’s trade surplus last month likely shrank 63 percent to USD43.5 billion, they said.

Because of seasonal factors, Chinese yuan loans may have reached CNY3.07 trillion (USD447 billion) in March, with social financing falling to CNY4.31 trillion and M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, jumping 12.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the survey. The three figures were all higher than official data for February.

The yuan exchange rate versus the US dollar was 6.8717 on March 31. The economists expect the redback to strengthen to 6.84 by the end of this month and to 6.65 by the end of the year.

The benchmark deposit rate, the one-year loan prime rate, and the deposit-reserve ratio for large financial institutions will remain unchanged in this month, the economists forecast. Two predicted a cut in the five-year loan prime rate.

Editor: Futura Costaglione