(Yicai Global) May 9 -- Confidence in China’s economy remains positive for the fourth month in a row in May, despite softening for a second straight month, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai Global.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index fell to 51.2 this month from 51.65 in April, the poll of 18 leading economists in China showed. The index stood at 52.3 in March and 51.3 in February. A reading above 50 indicates positive sentiment.

The economists expect China's consumer price index to have edged up 0.4 percent last month from a year earlier, down 0.3 point from March. The producer price index likely fell 3.3 percent, versus a 2.5 percent decline in March.

Prices may be at a low level throughout 2023, likely reaching a low of 0.5 percent in the second quarter and 0.8 percent for the whole year, said Xu Dongshi, chief economist at Galaxy Securities.

The survey's findings also showed that the average growth rate of industrial added value is expected to have risen 9.6 percent last month from a year earlier, up from 3.9 percent in March.

Fixed asset investment probably rose 5.4 percent in April, while retail sales of consumer goods likely surged 21.7 from a year earlier, a significant jump from 10.6 percent in March, according to the economists.

China's trade surplus surged to USD90.2 billion in April, according to data the General Administration of Customs released today, up from USD88.2 billion in March and outstripping the average USD66.2 billion predicted by the economists.

Monetary policy will remain loose, with a low probability of a cut in the open market operations rate in the near term, according to the survey’s findings. The economists predicted that new loans in April reached CNY1.52 trillion (USD219.6 billion), while social financing fell to CNY2.1 trillion, and the average growth rate of M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, likely rose 12.6 percent from March.

The Chinese yuan’s exchange rate versus the US dollar was 6.924 on April 28. The economists expect the redback to strengthen to 6.83 by the end of this month, but lowered their exceptions to 6.68 from 6.65 by the end of the year.

Editor: Martin Kadiev