(Yicai) Jan. 11 -- Confidence in China's economy remained unchanged this month, with policies likely to stay loose and the economy to recover moderately this year, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index was 50.89 in January, the same as in December, the poll of leading China-based economists showed yesterday. The figure was 50.84 in November and 50.89 in October. A reading above 50 indicates positive sentiment.

The meeting of China's top leadership last month showed the government's determination to stabilize confidence and promote growth, said Zhou Xue, economist at Mizuho Securities Asia. The introduction of restrictive policies to regulate the development of the industry and prevent financial risks will significantly slow down this year, Zhou added, noting that it is imperative to loosen and support the private economy and foreign investment.

The average forecast of the surveyed economists was for the consumer price index to have fallen 0.34 percent in December, 0.16 point slower than the official CPI decline in November. They also predicted that the producer price index dropped 2.71 percent last month, compared with the official 3 percent fall a month earlier.

The CPI and PPI remained low, reflecting insufficient effective demand in China and overcapacity in some industries, noted Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities.

China's retail sales of consumer goods grew 8.05 percent last month from a year ago, according to the average forecast, down from a growth rate of 10.1 percent in November.

Regarding autos, which account for the largest proportion of consumption, the growth rates of retail and wholesale sales of China Passenger Car Association's passenger cars fell to 7 percent and 17 percent, respectively, in the first 24 days of December from a year earlier, said Chen Xing, chief macro analyst at Caitong Securities.

However, the decline in the growth rate in commercial housing sales narrowed slightly, Chen noted, adding that the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods will decrease.

Economists expect foreign trade to have remained under pressure last month, with the export growth rate rising to 1.9 percent after falling 0.6 percent in November from a year earlier. The average forecast for the import growth rate was 0.21 percent in December from a year ago, lower than the official 0.5 percent announced last month.

China's foreign trade resilience is expected to be further highlighted this year, according to Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International Holdings. It will support the recovery of exports and weaken its drag on economic growth, benefiting from the gradual stabilization of global trade and improving the country's competitiveness in manufacturing and high-tech fields, Cheng pointed out.

Editor: Martin Kadeiv