(Yicai) Aug. 7 -- Confidence in China’s economic outlook rebounded in August, reflecting improved market sentiment despite the need for continued macro policy support due to persistent external uncertainties, according to a poll conducted by Yicai.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.2 for this month, up from 49.9 in July, returning above the boom-bust line, according to the findings of a survey of 14 leading China-based chief economists.

China’s consumer price index likely declined 0.2 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a 0.1 percent growth in June, the chief economists predicted. They expect the producer price index to have fallen 3.3 percent in the period, a slight improvement from the 3.6 percent drop the month before.

For the first seven months of the year, the chief economists forecast China’s fixed-asset investment to maintain a 2.8 percent growth, unchanged from the first six months.

China’s retail sales growth likely expanded to 4.9 percent in July from 4.8 percent the month before, according to the economists. They expect the industrial value-added output to have risen 6 percent last month, compared with 6.8 percent in June.

The trade surplus probably narrowed to USD104.02 billion from USD114.77 billion in the period.

The economists expect July’s financial data to have declined from June’s official figures due to seasonal factors. The average forecast for new Chinese yuan-denominated loans was CNY349.9 billion (USD48.7 billion), and for total social financing, it was CNY1.5 trillion (USD208.9 billion).

They believe it is unlikely that China would adjust the loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio this month.

The yuan’s central parity rate versus the US dollar was fixed at 7.1494 on July 31. The economists predicted the rate to remain relatively stable at 7.1 this month and at the end of the year.

Editor: Futura Costaglione