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(Yicai) June 11 -- Confidence in China’s economic outlook has softened for the second month in a row, while remaining above the boom-bust line, according to the findings of an Yicai survey.
The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index, released yesterday, edged down to 50.23 in June from 50.52 in May, remaining above the key 50 level.
The China-based economists indicated that the economy is still recovering, with the effects of new government policy support and a rebound in demand still to be seen.
Since last month, local authorities have started to issue bonds at a faster pace, sales of ultra-long special government bonds has got underway, and the central bank has introduced a slew of policies to help bolster the real estate market, said Wang Han, chief economist at Industrial Securities.
How well the economy picks up will depend on the effects of these policies, the degree of recovery in market confidence, and the level of overall improvement in supply and demand, Wang added.
The latest property market policies, an unprecedented level of easing in the sector, will help to boost demand, transactions, and capital recouping by developers as well as steady prices and expectations, said Cai Wei, chief strategy officer of KPMG Advisory China.
But the degree to which the policies can help lift the market and how long the support will last remains to be seen, with employment and income growth expectations under pressure along with a low appetite for borrowing, Cai added.
Consumer prices likely rose 0.4 percent last month from a year earlier, faster than April's 3 percent clip, the economists predicted. They expect producer prices to have fallen 1.6 percent, a slower pace than the previous month's 2.5 percent decline.
Their average growth forecast for fixed asset investment, retail sales of consumer goods, and industrial added value for May were 4.1 percent, 3.4 percent, and 6 percent, respectively.
New lending likely rebounded to CNY1.25 trillion (USD172.3 billion) from CNY730 billion (USD100.7 billion) in April, driven by stepped up government bond sales, the economists said. Newly added social financing will reach CNY2.18 trillion, reversing a rare narrowing in April, they added.
Editors: Dou Shicong, Martin Kadiev