China's Chief Economists Are Optimistic About August Outlook, Survey Shows
He Xiao
/SOURCE : Yicai
China's Chief Economists Are Optimistic About August Outlook, Survey Shows

(Yicai Global) Aug. 10 -- China's gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent on the year in the second quarter, above expectations and bolstering economists' confidence, a Yicai Global survey shows; with more than 90 percent of respondents in the Chief Economists Survey saying they were optimistic about China's economic outlook this month.

The Yicai Global Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 51 for August, marking 12 straight months above 50. Huang Jianhui, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank Corp. Ltd. [SHA:600016, HKG:1988], gave the highest forecast at 53.8. His Haitong Securities Co. [SHA:600837, HKG:6837] counterpart's score was the lowest, at 50.

The economy will continue to flourish on both the supply and consumption sides, Huarong Securities' Wu Ge said. His upbeat forecast is based on stabilizing real estate investment driven by booming sales in third and fourth tier cities; faster export growth and improved foreign market demand; solid manufacturing investment buoyed by strong growth of the real estate sector and exports; and steady increases in industrial firms' profits and production volume.

The economists surveyed expect monetary policy to remain prudent and neutral, while fiscal policy will remain proactive. They projected that the dollar-yuan central parity rate would fall 0.33 percent to 6.75 by the end of August, but raised their year-end prediction to 6.87, up from their last forecast of 6.96.

Author is a researcher at Yicai Research Institute

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Keywords: Chief Economist, Yuan , Forex, Monetary Policy , Fiscal Policy