(Yicai Global) Aug. 9 -- Confidence in China’s economy fell for a fourth month in row, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai Global, amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and a decline in exports.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index slid to 52.3 this month, but remained above the expansionary mark of 50, the survey that Yicai Global’s sister publication Yicai released yesterday showed. All 22 participants were optimistic about the economy in the month ahead.

In the past year or so, industrial production and exports have been the main driving force behind the country’s economic revival after the pandemic, said Kang Yong, chief economist at KPMG China. But the two-year average growth rate slowed in the second quarter from the first given the impact of rising commodity prices, enhanced environmental protection efforts, and the chip shortage.

China's export growth slowed in July, despite increasing for the 14th consecutive month. Exports rose 19.3 percent from a year earlier, versus a 32.2 percent gain in June, the General Administration of Customs said on Aug. 7.

Exports have remained strong, but due to high baselines, year-on-year growth in the second half is expected to slow, Kang said. There are still many uncertainties surrounding the global economy, while China has brought in stricter coronavirus control measures amid new outbreaks, and the impact of recent natural disasters will pose greater challenges for China's economic recovery this half, Kang said. He maintained his forecast of 8.8 percent growth this year.

Downward pressure on the economy began in this half of the year, as the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in China started to drag on the pickup in consumption, while real estate investment is under pressure amid stricter regulations, and exports face uncertainty, according to Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD.Com.

Policies should be moderately loosened to stabilize growth, especially a more proactive fiscal policy, while monetary policy should be more precise to support small and micro enterprises and sectors in difficulties, Shen added.

The chief economists expect China’s consumer prices to have gained 0.8 percent last month from a year earlier, slowing from a 1.1 percent increase in June. They anticipate producer prices to have jumped 8.7 percent, down from 8.8 percent the month before.

The survey predicts China’s average fixed asset investment to have climbed almost 11.2 percent in July from the same period last year, and that of retail sales of consumer goods to have jumped nearly 11.2 percent, both lower than June’s gains of 12.6 percent and 12.1 percent, respectively.

Editor: Futura Costaglione