(Yicai Global) Oct. 25 -- China’s economy is expected to continue its recovery this quarter, after logging better-than-expected growth in the third quarter, analysts said.

China’s gross domestic product expanded 3.9 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday. This is higher than the 3.68 percent growth forecast by an Yicai Global poll of chief economists and a huge improvement on the 0.4 percent growth reported in the second quarter.

In the first nine months, China’s GDP climbed 3 percent from a year earlier to CNY87 trillion (USD11.9 trillion), according to the NBS. This is 0.5 percentage point higher than in the first half.

Key economic indicators have stabilized and remain within a reasonable range despite severe adversities, the NBS said. However, the external environment has become more intricate and challenging and the foundation for economic recovery is still far from solid, it added. The government should continue to give full play to supportive policies, maintain economic operations within a reasonable range and strive to stabilize employment and prices.

The macro economy is expected to keep picking up in the fourth quarter and GDP growth should rise to between 4.5 percent and 5 percent year-on-year, said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating. Consumption will improve and once again serve as the main driver of economic growth, infrastructure investment will maintain double-digit expansion, while the factors holding back real estate investment will ease.

In the future, policymakers should pay more attention to expanding social demand, Pang Ming, chief economist of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, told Yicai Global. Monetary policies should be more in line with fiscal and industrial policies, and they should focus on consumption and investment as demand drivers.

In the third quarter, industrial development recovered rapidly, with added value jumping 4.6 percent year on year. This boosted economic growth by 1.4 percentage point.

Fixed asset investment, which does not include rural households, has been on the rise for two straight months. In the first three quarters, it surged 5.9 percent year on year, a gain of 0.1 percentage point from January to August’s growth rate. The sub-category of infrastructure investment has also climbed for the last five months. In the first nine months it expanded 8.6 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from the first eight months.

From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods edged up 0.7 percent from a year ago to CNY32 trillion (USD4.3 trillion). This was 0.2 percentage point more than in the first eight months.

Editor: Kim Taylor