China’s August Economic Data to Likely Perk Up After Regulators Call for Support
Du Chuan
DATE:  Aug 21 2023
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
China’s August Economic Data to Likely Perk Up After Regulators Call for Support China’s August Economic Data to Likely Perk Up After Regulators Call for Support

(Yicai) Aug. 21 -- China's key macroeconomic indicators for this month, including those for consumption, investment, and production, are expected to pick up after financial regulators discussed the implementation of stabilizing policies.

The People's Bank of China, the National Administration of Financial Regulation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission signaled further efforts in counter-cyclical adjustments and control at their recent meeting. Experts believe they called for more coordination between financial, fiscal, and industrial policies to promote consumption, steady investment, and expand demand.

Support for the economy should be strong, stable, structured, and sustainable, the regulators said in a meeting on Aug. 18 to study the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies for the development of the financial sector and prevention and resolution of financial risks.

As the meeting stressed the need for "strong enough support," China will likely step up its credit easing efforts, said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International. Financial data will continue to lead economic data, building recovery momentum, Wang noted.

The PBOC may no longer emphasize restrictions on the pace of monetary policy and open a looser monetary toolbox, according to Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities. Interest rates were cut in June and this month, and with the economic fundamentals under pressure aggregate broad monetary policy strengthened significantly, Ming added, saying he expects the inclination to monetary easing to become more evident.

In the short term, the financial authorities should step up efforts to stabilize the growth of the real economy through investment and financing, even at their own expense, said Zhang Ming, deputy director of the China Academy of Social Sciences' financial research institute. In the medium to long term, they should integrate their plans into national key areas, he noted.

The PBOC still has room to lower rates, thereby supporting the real economy by driving down interest rates, Zhang added. As the main providers of direct financing, banks will likely see their profits and net interest margin spread shrink.

Wang believes that rate cuts may continue as the meeting of regulators reiterated the need to adjust and optimize real estate loan policies. Lowering the down payment ratio is also a key tool, Wang pointed out, adding that restrictions on home sales and purchases and other policies introduced when property demand was strong may also be adjusted.

A lower reserve requirement ratio is also still worth looking forward to, said Jia Dongxu, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, noting that he expects a reduction of 25 basis points this quarter. Structural monetary policy tools will become more effective, helping to stabilize the cost of bank liabilities, Jia added.

Editors: Xu Wei, Futura Costaglione

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Keywords:   Economic Data,August