Chinese Real Estate Industry Has a Chance to Clear Up Next Year, Nomura China Chief Economist Says
Yuan Ning
DATE:  Dec 12 2023
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
Chinese Real Estate Industry Has a Chance to Clear Up Next Year, Nomura China Chief Economist Says Chinese Real Estate Industry Has a Chance to Clear Up Next Year, Nomura China Chief Economist Says

(Yicai) Dec. 12 -- The Chinese real estate market will have a chance to resolve its risks next year, according to the chief economist at Nomura China, the Chinese arm of Japanese securities brokerage Nomura.

Although some of this year's challenges will continue next year, there is hope because some industries, such as the real estate one, will have the possibility to grasp the opportunities in the challenges and find a balance, Lu Ting said.

The Chinese economy did not recover as expected this year mainly because of real estate constraints, Lu noted, adding that the first issue that needs to be fixed next year is the delivery of buildings. In this regard, developers, banks, local governments, the central government, and other parties must work together, especially by combining monetary and fiscal policies, he pointed out.

If China solves the house delivery problem next year, the relaxing policies on purchase and sales restrictions and price limits implemented this year will begin to show results, according to Lu.

Given the easing level and direction of various policies, the real estate recovery process will also bring about an optimization of China's entire urbanization and increases in demand and efficiency throughout the whole country, as various resources, including land, financial, and credit resources, will gather in clusters, Lu explained.

The real estate sector has shown signs of stabilization, but not enough to be too optimistic, Lu noted, adding that attention should also be paid to the overcapacity risks of the new energy vehicle, lithium battery, and solar cell industries, as their support to the economy will likely decline.

Some of this year's challenges, such as the impact of the international environment on foreign trade and the pressure on China's exports brought about by slowdowns in developing countries' economic growths, will remain next year, Lu believes.

Meanwhile, some other challenges from this year, such as the weakening in the rebound of consumption and the impact of declining housing prices and stock markets on people's wealth, will become tougher next year, Lu said.

Based on the above factors, Lu predicted that China should set its gross domestic product target for next year at about 4.5 percent.

Editor: Futura Costaglione

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Keywords:   Nomura China