(Yicai) Dec. 8 -- Confidence in China’s economy has softened this month, according to the findings of Yicai’s monthly survey of leading chief economists.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50 for December, on the dividing line between optimism and pessimism and down from 50.3 in November.

China’s economy is in a weak recovery state, and economic policy will remain accommodative to lay a solid foundation for the start of the government’s 15th Five-Year Plan period that begins next year, according to the 14 economists polled.

The consumer price index likely rose 0.7 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a 0.2 percent increase in October, the economists predict. The producer price index likely fell 2.1 percent in the period, the same as in October.

November’s inflation data is due out on Dec. 10.

The economists expect fixed asset investment to have declined 2.1 percent in November from a year ago, faster than the 1.7 percent drop the month before. They project retail sales to have grown 3.1 percent, and industrial production to have climbed 5 percent, both higher than the actual figures for October.

China had a trade surplus of USD111.7 billion in November, up from USD90.1 billion the month before and the most since June, according to figures the General Administration of Customs published today. The economists had expected USD100 billion.

Exports jumped 5.9 percent from a year ago to USD330.3 billion, compared with their estimate for 3.6 percent. Imports rose 1.9 percent to USD218.7 billion, versus a 3.8 percent projection.

The panel was optimistic for November’s credit data. The average forecast for new Chinese yuan-denominated loans was CNY679.1 billion (USD96.1 billion), and for new social financing, it was CNY2.32 trillion (USD328.2 billion).

M2, a broad gauge of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, likely grew 8.3 percent, according to the survey.

The economists only see a slight possibility of adjustments this month to the loan prime rate, the benchmark lending rate, and the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve.

Editor: Futura Costaglione