Nomura Raises China’s 2023 GDP Growth Forecast to 5.3% on Strong Holiday Spending
Li Ailin
DATE:  Feb 07 2023
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
Nomura Raises China’s 2023 GDP Growth Forecast to 5.3% on Strong Holiday Spending Nomura Raises China’s 2023 GDP Growth Forecast to 5.3% on Strong Holiday Spending

(Yicai Global) Feb. 7 -- Japanese brokerage Nomura Securities has upwardly revised its prediction for China’s gross domestic product growth this year to 5.3 percent from 4.8 percent following an encouraging rebound in consumption during the week-long Chinese New Year holiday at the end of last month.

China’s economy could expand 5.3 percent in 2023, the Tokyo-based brokerage said in a recent report. GDP growth for the four quarters is likely to be 3.6 percent, 7.6 percent, 4.6 percent and 5.6 percent respectively, it added.

The relaxation of pandemic prevention measures and the return to a path of stabilizing economic growth will boost the economy and help unleash some repressed demands in the short run, said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura.

Sales at major retailers and restaurants jumped 6.8 percent during the Spring Festival break, which lasted from Jan. 21 to Jan. 27, from the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Commerce. While tourism-related revenue surged 30 percent to CNY375.8 billion (USD55.4 billion) and the number of tourists soared 23 percent to 310 million.

As a result of the promising data, a marked rebound in the country's economic growth has become the consensus among foreign financial institutions.

China’s economy is expected to pick up greatly after the Lunar New Year break, especially from the second quarter, said Wang Tao, chief China economist and head of Asia Economic Research at Swiss lender UBS.

The unleashing of the “higher-than-usual” savings made during the pandemic will spur the recovery of the services sector and in particular the revitalization of small and medium-sized firms, which will benefit employment as well as household income, Wang added.

Given how quickly the latest Covid-19 wave passed, consumption in brick-and-mortar locations is recovering much faster than expected and sectors such as dining, tourism, cosmetics as well as entertainment will all bounce back this year, so long as there is not another flare-up, US credit rating agency Fitch Ratings said in a report.

Editors: Dou Shicong, Kim Taylor

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Keywords:   Spring Festival,Nomura,UBS