(Yicai Global) Sep. 7 -- Confidence in China’s economic performance remained positive for the third consecutive month in September, despite inching lower for a second month, according to a survey of economists.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index fell to 50.1 this month, the poll of leading economists in China showed, slipping from 50.2 in August and 50.6 in July. A reading above 50 indicates positive sentiment.

China will face pressure to stabilize economic growth after frequent Covid-19 outbreaks in parts of the country disrupted the economic recovery, the respondents said, adding that this will not hinder the recovery trend.

The consumer price index likely rose 2.8 percent in August from a year earlier, higher than the 2.7 percent that the National Bureau of Statistics calculated for July, the results of the survey showed. The producer price index is expected to have jumped 3.2 percent, 1 percentage point slower than in July.

The economists predicted August’s annual increase in consumption and value-added industrial output to have risen 3.8 percent and 4 percent, respectively, higher than the official numbers for the previous month.

Fixed-asset investment likely climbed 5.5 percent, down 0.2 point from July’s official rate. The trade surplus probably fell to USD90.8 billion from USD101.3 billion a month earlier.

The Chinese yuan will remain steady against the US dollar, trading at 6.9 to the greenback by the end of August, the economists said, but revised their prediction for the end of the year to 6.84 from 6.68. 

The economists also predicted that August’s financial data were higher than the official statistics for the previous month. New yuan loans likely rose to CNY1.35 trillion (USD194.7 billion) from CNY679 billion (USD97.9 billion), and social financing is expected to have reached CNY2.18 trillion, up from CNY756 billion in July. Growth in M2 broad money is thought to have averaged 12.1 percent, up 0.1 point from the previous month.

The one-year and five-year loan prime rates will be 3.65 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, at the end of this month, about the same as August’s official figures, the economists said.

On Aug. 24, the State Council, China’s cabinet, passed a resolution to issue over CNY300 billion of extra policy-based development financial instruments on top of that at the end of June. The economists believe the move aims to stabilize the economy, promote effective investment, and show the country’s great efforts to enhance financial investments in major projects.

Editor: Futura Costaglione