(Yicai Global) Nov. 4 -- Confidence in China’s economy fell to the lowest level since last May amid expectations of rising inflation, sluggish consumption, and slowing export growth, according to chief economists polled by Yicai Global.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index dropped to 48.93, the poorest figure in 18 months, according to the results of Yicai's latest survey with 19 participants.

China’s economy will face great pressures this month while the country is expected to maintain a prudent monetary policy in the future, based on the respondents' predictions.

Inflation is on the rise. The Consumer Price Index in October is expected to climb 1.28 percent from a year ago, far exceeding the official increase of 0.7 percent in September, the chief economists predicted.

The Producer Price Index in October may soar by 11.99 percent from a year earlier, higher than the 10.7 percent hike logged in September, they added.

But the growth of investment and consumption is likely to slow. In October, fixed-asset investment should have risen by 6.38 percent from a year earlier, lower than the 7.3-percent increase in September. Retail sales of consumer goods may have climbed by 3.74 percent last month, down from the earlier growth rate of 4.4 percent.

Exports are widening slower than before but imports are surging, based on the experts' estimates. Exports may have expanded by 22.58 percent in October from a year ago, down from the 28.1-percent increase logged in September. That would result in a trade surplus of USD62.3 billion, down from the September figure of USD66.8 billion. But imports could have jumped 25.86 percent, higher than the 17.6-percent hike of September.

China's monetary policy will remain cautious, according to the financial experts. China’s benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans, as well as large financial institutions’ reserve requirement ratio, are not likely to be changed this month, they suggested.

In October, new loans may have tallied CNY882.5 billion (USD138 billion), smaller than September's addition of CNY1.66 trillion (USD259.6 billion), based on the survey findings.

The country's total social financing may have widened by CNY1.53 trillion last month, lower than the boost of CNY2.9 trillion in September. But broad money could still be up. The expected growth of M2 is 8.36 percent for last month, higher than the 8.3-percent addition recorded in September.

The renminbi is getting firmer. The experts fixed their earlier prediction, anticipating a stronger yuan, as the country's exports have remained strong amid quick economic recovery during the global Covid-19 pandemic. The redback-greenback exchange rate is likely to stand at 6.41 by Nov. 30, according to the chief economists.

Later on Dec. 31, the rate should be 6.43, they added, strengthening their earlier prediction of 6.47 to envision a firmer yuan.

Editor: Emmi Laine, Xiao Yi