(Yicai) June 9 -- The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index slipped to 49.9 in June 2026 from 50.4 a month earlier, signaling slightly weaker sentiment among economists despite expectations for continued moderate economic growth.

The decline suggests economists remain cautious about the economic outlook and believe policymakers should continue coordinating measures to stimulate demand and support steady growth.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index is a monthly sentiment gauge compiled by Yicai Global based on surveys of leading China-based chief economists. A reading above 50 indicates optimism about China’s macroeconomic outlook, while a reading below 50 signals pessimism. A total of 14 chief economists participated in this month’s survey.

Economists surveyed forecast China's consumer price index rose 1.3 percent in May from a year earlier, slightly faster than the 1.2 percent increase reported for April by the National Bureau of Statistics. The producer price index is expected to have increased 3.6 percent, up from April's 2.8 percent growth.

Economic and Policy Outlook

Looking ahead, economists expect policy settings to remain broadly stable in June, with little likelihood of reductions to either the loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio, according to the survey.

Economists forecast total retail sales of consumer goods declined 0.1 percent in May from a year earlier, compared with a 0.2 percent increase in April. Industrial value-added is expected to have risen 4.3 percent, slightly higher than April's 4.1 percent growth. Fixed-asset investment is forecast to have fallen 2 percent, unchanged from the previous month.

The survey also showed economists expect both exports and imports to grow at a slower pace than in the previous month. Average forecasts point to export growth of 12.9 percent and import growth of 23 percent year on year, resulting in a trade surplus of USD91.4 billion.

Economists estimate total social financing reached CNY2.4 trillion (USD354.4 billion) in May, rebounding from CNY600 billion (USD88.6 billion) reported by the People's Bank of China for April. Growth in the broad money supply (M2) is expected to remain unchanged at 8.6 percent.

Ten chief economists provided forecasts for the LPR and the reserve requirement ratio for large financial institutions. All said the chances of cuts to either benchmark in June were relatively low.

The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar stood at CNY6.8176 per dollar on May 29. Economists expect the midpoint fixing to remain stable in June, with an average forecast of 6.8 by the end of the month. Their average forecast for the year-end yuan exchange rate is 6.76 per dollar, slightly lower than expectations at the end of last month.

Editor: Emmi Laine