(Yicai Global) Dec. 7 -- Confidence in China’s economy has rebounded to above the halfway mark of 50, indicating expansion, after hitting an 18-month low last month and sinking below the benchmark, according to chief economists polled by Yicai Global.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index for December was 50.04, up from 48.93 in November, according to the results of the Shanghai-based media group’s latest poll. China’s economy will continue to recover this month, despite a certain downward pressure, the experts said.

The consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, is expected to climb 2.4 percent in December from the same time last year, far exceeding the official increase of 1.5 percent in October, the chief economists said.

The producer price index, a key measure of industrial profits, may soar by 12.03 percent this month, less than the 13.5 percent hike logged in October, they added.

Growth of investment and consumption is likely to slow. In November, fixed-asset investment should have risen by 5.33 percent, much less than the 6.1 percent logged for October, the experts said. Retail sales of consumer goods may have climbed by 4.44 percent last month, lower than October’s 4.9 percent.

Exports are contracting, with a growth forecast of 17.88 percent in November, down from 27.1 percent in October. Imports are also dipping and are expected to expand 20.12 percent, lower than the 20.6 percent hike in October. This would result in a trade surplus of USD82.2 billion, down from the October figure of USD84.5 billion.

China’s benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans are not likely to be changed this month, according to the experts.

New loans in November are expected to tally CNY1.53 trillion (USD240.1 billion) while the country’s total social financing may have widened by CNY2.54 trillion. The expected growth of M2 broad money is 8.61 percent, lower than the 8.7 percent addition recorded in October.

The US dollar-Chinese yuan exchange rate should be 6.4 by the end of the year, and will depreciate to 6.52 by the end of next year, they said.

Editor: Kim Taylor