Yuan to Gain Further Versus U.S. Dollar in 2018, Yicai Chief Economists Survey Shows
He Xiao
DATE:  Feb 07 2018
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
Yuan to Gain Further Versus U.S. Dollar in 2018, Yicai Chief Economists Survey Shows Yuan to Gain Further Versus U.S. Dollar in 2018, Yicai Chief Economists Survey Shows

(Yicai Global) Feb. 7 -- The Chinese yuan is forecast to make ongoing gains this year against the U.S. dollar, according to the results of a new Yicai survey of chief economists, who raised their expectations for a stronger Chinese currency.

In response to persistent dollar softening over recent months, the average forecast is for a 1.98 percent appreciation in the yuan's central parity rate against the dollar this year to 6.46, from a 6.65 median projection made last month, the latest poll findings show.

The central parity rate gained today to the highest level since Aug. 11, 2015. It strengthened 190 basis points to 6.2882 versus the dollar, according to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. In January, the rate gained more than 3 percent against the dollar, compared with 5.81 percent for the whole of 2017.

The dollar index, a gauge that measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, fell 3.44 percent last month. The dollar index fell below 90 on Jan. 24 for the first time in four years. Per calculations run by the Yicai Research Institute, the yuan's Real Effective Exchange Rate, or REER, was 106.09 on Jan. 26, the highest weekly close since the end of November 2015.

Strict financial regulation will continue and monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, according to the economists who responded to the survey. In terms of specific economic indicators, they expect the prices of goods to drop.

The Yicai Chief Economists' Confidence Index is 50.43 for February, higher than last month. It has stayed above the threshold of 50 for 18 consecutive months. Only three economists expected the index to fall below 50.

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Keywords:   Greenback,Appreciation,Foreign Exchange,US