(Yicai Global) Nov. 4 -- Beijing bankers have raised their estimate in the latest testing of the macro-economic temperature by the central bank to 25 in the third quarter, nearly double their rating in the previous quarter, but still slightly lower than the year before.

The macro-economic heat index is expected to rise to 35.8 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a survey by the People’s Bank of China released today.

Half of the bankers surveyed thought that the economy was normal in the three months ended Sept. 30, while only 21.6 percent of them did in the second quarter. The other half thought that the economy was depressed, an improvement on the 78.4 percent who thought so in the previous quarter. None of the bankers reckoned that the economy was overheated.

The banking climate index was 58.8 percent in the third quarter, indicating that the majority of Beijing’s lenders felt that the industry was in a good or expanding state. This was a 2 percentage point gain from the second quarter, but a 10.2 percentage point drop from the same period last year.

The banking profitability index stood at 47.3 percent and remained unchanged from the second quarter but marked a 9.5 percentage point drop from a year earlier.

Demand for loans was growing and should remain high, the bankers said. The overall loan demand index for the third quarter was 59.5 percent, a gain of 6.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and up 10.1 percentage points from the year before. It should reach 69.6 percent next quarter, they said.

In the manufacturing industry, the loan demand index stood at 58.1 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than in the second quarter and an increase of 8.1 percentage points from the previous year.

Demand for loans in the real estate sector dropped though, with the index reading at 45.3 percent, a fall of 6.3 percentage points from the previous quarter and 3.8 percentage points lower than a year earlier.

For mortgages, the index stood at 62.3 percent, advancing 3.7 percentage points from the second quarter and 14.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

Editor: Kim Taylor