(Yicai) Oct. 13 -- Confidence in China’s economic outlook has softened this month, while remaining above the boom-bust line, according to the findings of Yicai’s monthly survey of leading chief economists.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.3 for October, down from 50.6 in September but still above the key 50 level for the third consecutive month. Yicai polled 16 China-based chief economists.

The economy will maintain moderate growth this quarter, according to the economists, with their average growth forecast for full-year gross domestic product coming in at 4.8 percent, a little under last year’s expansion of 5 percent.

China’s economy grew 5.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, slowing from 5.4 percent in the first quarter. The government has set a target of “around 5 percent” for this year.

The economists expect China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which will lay out the nation’s development agenda through 2030, to set an average annual GDP growth target of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent to support efforts to meet the government’s goal of achieving a "moderately developed" economy by 2035.

The consumer price index likely fell 0.2 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a 0.4 percent decline in August, the economists predicted. Consumer inflation has fallen in five of the eight months for which official figures have been reported this year.

The economists predict the producer price index to have plunged 2.3 percent in September, an improvement on a 2.9 percent fall the month before. Factory gate prices have declined for 35 months straight.

Fixed-asset investment in the first nine months of the year likely remained unchanged from the same period of last year, versus 0.5 percent year-on-year growth in the first eight months, according to the economists.

They projected retail sales to have expanded 3.1 percent last month, easing from August’s 3.4 percent clip. Industrial value-added output is expected to have risen 5.2 percent in September, slightly less than the month prior.

China’s trade surplus last month, published today by the General Administration of Customs, was USD90.45 billion, below the USD96.8 billion predicted by the economists. The surplus was USD102.3 billion in August.

The panel was optimistic for last month’s credit data. The average forecast for new Chinese yuan-denominated loans was CNY1.548 trillion (USD217.1 billion), and for total social financing, it was CNY3.5 trillion. Both much higher than August’s actual numbers.

The authorities are unlikely to adjust the benchmark loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio this month, the economists indicated.

The yuan’s central parity rate versus the US dollar was fixed at 7.1055 on Sept. 30. The economists expect it to remain relatively stable at 7.1 by the end of this month.

Editor: Futura Costaglione