(Yicai) Sept. 9 -- Confidence in China’s economic outlook increased further this month among chief economists surveyed by Yicai, who expect resilient growth under coordinated policy support.

The Yicai Chief Economists’ Confidence Index came in at 50.6 for September, up from 50.2 last month, remaining above the boom-bust line for the second consecutive month. Yicai polled 15 leading China-based chief economists.

August’s consumer price index likely fell 0.2 percent from a year earlier, below the official unchanged reading in July, the economists predict. They expect the producer price index to have fallen 2.9 percent, an improvement on a 3.6 percent drop the month before.

Fixed-asset investment in the first eight months of the year is seen 1.5 percent up, less than the 1.6 percent increase logged in the first seven months.

Retail sales growth likely expanded to 3.9 percent in August from 3.7 percent the month before, while industrial value-added output is projected to have risen 5.7 percent, the same as in July.

The chief economists forecast a trade surplus of USD99.04 billion for August, less than the official USD102.3 billion announced yesterday by the General Administration of Customs.

They expect August’s financial data to have improved from July’s. The forecast for new Chinese yuan-denominated loans was CNY806.8 billion (USD113.3 billion), and for total social financing, it was CNY2.6 trillion (USD365 billion).

Meanwhile, their average growth forecast for M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, remains unchanged at 8.8 percent.

The economists believe China is unlikely this month to adjust the benchmark loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio, the percentage of funds banks must hold in reserve.

The yuan’s central parity rate versus the US dollar was fixed at 7.1030 on Aug. 29. The economists predict the rate will remain relatively stable at 7.1 percent this month and by the end of the year.

Editor: Futura Costaglione