(Yicai Sept. 9 -- Confidence in China’s economic outlook increased in September, indicating continued recovery and resilience thanks to coordinated macroeconomic policies, according to a survey conducted by Yicai.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.6 for this month, up from 50.2 in August, remaining above the boom-bust line for the second consecutive month, according to the findings of a poll of 15 leading China-based chief economists.

China’s consumer price index likely declined 0.2 percent last month from a year earlier, below the official unchanged reading in July, the chief economists predicted. They expect the producer price index to have fallen 2.9 percent in the period, an improvement from the 3.6 percent drop the month before.

For the first eight months of the year, the chief economists forecast China’s fixed-asset investment to have risen 1.5 percent, lower than 1.6 percent from the first seven months.

China’s retail sales growth likely expanded to 3.9 percent in August from 3.7 percent the month before, according to the economists. They expect the industrial value-added output to have risen 5.7 percent last month, the same as in July.

The economists projected a trade surplus of USD99.04 billion for August, lower than the official USD102.3 billion reported yesterday.

They expect August’s financial data to have increased from July’s official figures. The average forecast for new Chinese yuan-denominated loans was CNY806.8 billion (USD113.3 billion), and for total social financing, it was CNY2.6 trillion (USD365 billion).

Meanwhile, their average growth forecast for M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, remained unchanged at 8.8 percent.

Looking ahead, the economists believe it is unlikely that China would adjust the loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio this month.

The yuan’s central parity rate versus the US dollar was fixed at 7.1030 on Aug. 29. The economists predicted the rate to remain relatively stable at 7.1 percent this month and at the end of the year.

Editor: Futura Costaglione