(Yicai) April 9 -- Chief economists surveyed by Yicai remained positive about China’s economy for the ninth consecutive month in April, anticipating it got off to a solid start in the first quarter despite persistent external uncertainties.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.3 for this month, compared with 50.5 in March, 50.2 in February, and 50.3 in January, according to a survey of 16 leading China-based chief economists. A reading above 50 indicates optimism.

The economists predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth logged in the fourth quarter of last year. They expect GDP to climb 4.7 percent this year.

The turmoil in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, which has in turn pushed up costs for industrial firms and increased the operating pressure on them. The economists called for targeted policies to help businesses through this, including subsidies and financial liquidity to support for companies that have been hit especially hard.

The consumer price index likely rose 1.2 percent last month from a year earlier, slowing from February’s 1.3 percent gain, the economists predicted. Meanwhile, the producer price index probably rose 0.4 percent, versus a 0.9 percent decline the month before.

They expect retail sales of consumer goods to have climbed 2.5 percent in March from the same month last year, versus a 2.9 percent jump in February.

The average growth forecast for fixed asset investment was 2 percent for March, slightly higher than the 1.8 percent posted in the first two months of the year. However, the average forecast for March’s industrial production slowed to 5.9 percent from 6.3 percent in February.

China’s trade surplus was likely in the region of USD111.63 billion in March, a sharp drop from February’s USD213.6 billion, according to the economists.

Affected by seasonal factors, they anticipate last month’s financial data to have improved on February’s reads. The average forecast for new Chinese yuan-denominated loans was CNY3.26 trillion (USD476.3 billion), while that for aggregate financing to the real economy was CNY5.5 trillion.

M2, a broad gauge of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, likely expanded 9 percent in March, unchanged from the previous month, according to the survey’s findings.

The economists do not expect changes this month to the loan prime rate, the main lending benchmark, or the reserve requirement ratio, the share of funds banks must keep back in cash.

On March 31, China’s central bank set the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at 6.9194. The economists see the rate remaining stable in April, with an average forecast of 6.9 by month-end. They also now expect the yuan to strengthen to 6.8 against the greenback by the end of the year.

Editor: Futura Costaglione