(Yicai) Nov. 13 -- The commercialization of all-solid-state batteries in China will likely not happen until after 2030 at the earliest, according to industry insiders.

Small-scale demonstration installations of solid-state batteries in vehicles could be feasible by 2027, Yang Hongxin, chairman and chief executive of Chinese battery maker Svolt Energy Technology, said at the World Power Battery Conference held in Yibin yesterday. However, to reach large-scale commercialization, the supply chain needs to achieve economies of scale, while manufacturing must find lower-cost production processes, so there is a long way to go and likely no earlier than after 2030, he noted.

Cell-to-pack, cell-to-chassis, and other key technologies have achieved breakthroughs and entered the market in recent years. The technological iteration in the battery sector has also accelerated, with solid-state batteries becoming the most-watched direction.

"When I was visiting a market recently, five out of ten users asked if liquid batteries would soon become obsolete and whether they should wait for solid-state ones," noted Deng Chenghao, chairman of Deepal Automobile Technology, the electric vehicle unit of Chinese car giant Changan Automobile.

"Large-scale commercialization by 2030 is the most optimistic forecast, in fact, it might be 2035," according to Deng. Solid-state batteries still need to overcome scientific process, and cost challenges, he said, adding that the cycle will be very long.

"Whether solid-state batteries will succeed, whether they can truly solve pain points, or if they might be mass-producible only to introduce even more pain points, there is no conclusion yet," Deng pointed out.

While solid-state batteries are generating excitement, semi-solid-state batteries are being rapidly used, Yang said. "If you plan to buy a car in the next three to five years, you probably don't need to wait for solid-state batteries, as liquid and semi-solid ones are also very good."

In addition, solid-liquid hybrid batteries are an upgrade on the liquid battery technology roadmap, Deng noted. They can achieve intrinsic safety under high energy density, with the potential of liquid batteries not yet fully tapped, he said.

Changan Auto and Deepal are also actively advancing the research and development of solid-state batteries, but they keep developing liquid-based technologies or other potentially promising tech, Deng stressed. The two are exploring multiple paths, including improvements to liquid batteries, solid-state batteries, and sulfide and polymer composite technologies, he added.

The 2030 Power Battery Development Outlook report released at the conference identified seven major industry trends, including the rapid shift of solid-liquid hybrid batteries from small-batch use to full marketization and the achievement of tech breakthroughs and industrial demonstration applications of solid-state batteries.

China's battery sales surged 49 percent to 786 gigawatt-hours in the first nine months of this year from a year earlier, with exports jumping 33 percent to 129 GWh, according to official figures.

Editor: Martin Kadiev