(Yicai) Sept. 9 -- Sentiment around China’s economy has turned positive again this month, following a three-month slide, with economists expecting the moderate recovery to run on.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.1 for September, based on responses from 12 leading China-based economists. A reading above 50 indicates optimism. The figures for June, July, and August were 49.9, 49.7, and 49.9. At 50.5, March was the highest so far this year.

The economists expect China to achieve its annual economic growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent, predicting that government policies will become more targeted this half, with a greater emphasis on boosting household consumption and private investment and fostering medium- and long-term growth drivers.

Their August inflation forecasts were broadly in line with the official figures released today by the National Bureau of Statitics. They predicted the consumer price index to have gained 0.9 percent, versus an actual rise of 0.8 percent, and the producer price index to have jumped 3.6 percent, compared with an actual increase of 3.8 percent.

The broader economic picture remains mixed, with investment under pressure while consumption, industrial activity, trade, and financing are expected to show resilience.

The economists forecast a 7 percent decrease in fixed-asset investment in the first eight months of the year, steeper than the official 6.7 percent drop in the January-to-July period.

They also expect retail sales of consumer goods to have risen 0.8 percent year on year in August and industrial value added to have increased 4.7 percent, both higher than July's official growth rates.

China had a USD119.1 billion trade surplus last month, according to the General Administration of Customs. Year-on-year growth in both exports and imports quickened from July, as the economists had expected.

Due to seasonal factors, they expect new lending to have reached CNY411 billion (USD61.3 billion) last month, after July's reading was CNY340 billion lower than a year earlier.

Aggregate financing to the real economy likely rose by CNY2.3 trillion (USD342.9 billion) in August, they indicated, up from July’s official increase of CNY1.4 trillion. The economists also expect year-on-year growth in broad money supply (M2) to be unchanged from July's 7.7 percent.

Editor: Emmi Laine